I should also say at the outset, that while I do write a lot about predictability, I’m terrible at prognostication without data, which means that what I have below is more of a wish list rather than a bold statement about what will happen in 2025.
Also, so you know, this is not going to be some crass or trite blog post about how AI is going to change everything about Agile. Yes, AI will have some impact, but I’d be willing to bet that impact (whatever it is) will not be in any area that is widely being talked about now.
Without any further adieu, here goes:
1. A continued shift away from prescriptive Agile frameworks. With all due respect to practitioners of Scrum, Safe, etc., those frameworks have had their day, and unfortunately, our industry is no better off (and, in many cases, worse off) than when they first came into prominence. My expectation is that companies continue to drop their investment in those failed Agile experiments and continue to shift toward understanding what drives efficiency, effectiveness, and predictability from first principles. Yes, I am biased here. And yes, I’ve said this before. But I believe 2024 was a sea change in this regard, and I don’t see that trend reversing any time soon.
Plausibility: Pretty good.
2. Can we please stop talking about story points? It is 2025, ffs. Everybody and their brother’s neighbor’s dog know that story points don’t work, yet they still seem to be pervasive. Even the person who created story points says don’t use them but somehow, I am still encountering them on a monthly basis. Outside of fixed length timeboxes (see # 1), I believe story points are the single biggest factor that has held Agile back from achieving its full potential. I know, I know, story points are not “Agile,” but pick a team at random that is doing “Agile,” and chances are they are using story points--in one form or another. When the person who was responsible for introducing story points has repeatedly said not to use them, then I think it is time that we should heed his advice.
Plausibility: Nil.
3. Can Agile please finally fill its biggest hole? That is, it proves that adopting Agile practices actually improves either an organization's top line or bottom line or both. The problem is that as long as we continue to follow the prescriptive frameworks of # 1, this will be hard to demonstrate. Think about how many billions of dollars have been spent on Agile in the past twenty-ish years. Is there any proof that this investment has provided any real financial benefit? Anecdotally, I would say it has not—which is the fundamental reason why Agile finds itself in the doldrums. As long as Agile continues to rely on financially inefficient strategies like (as mentioned above) fixed length timeboxes, prescriptive roles, and story points (to name a few), then for all intents and purposes, Agile will continue its slow march toward death. What we need to do is be able to prove to CFOs, that any investment in legitimate Agile practices will contribute to a company's overall financial health. To date (with minimal exceptions), this has never been done. Therefore, from a CFO’s perspective, they are thinking, “If the only way I can do this is to do it badly, then I’ll do it badly as cheaply as possible”. Translation: no Agile. I personally am hoping to help move the needle on this, but until we do, I see no hope for Agile.
Plausibility: Minimal.
Maybe you were expecting something a bit more cheery and upbeat. I’m sorry I couldn’t deliver on that. Having said all of this, however, I still firmly believe that organizations that truly “get” Lean-Agile practices (not the faux ones provided by prescriptive frameworks) will survive, and the organizations that don’t won’t. That will probably take longer than 2025 to play out. But my guess is this is where it starts.
On that note, let’s work together to make Agile better for everyone. All the best to all of you in this year and beyond!